The annual first mock draft of the spring always feels like it's coming out too early. Some sites have one up all year and do a great job of covering this aspect of the NBA, but to me, they shouldn't really be taken seriously until we at least have the draft order set in stone.
Now that the Clippers know they're on the clock first come June 25, we can all enjoy these guess-timations with a clear conscience.
I know what I've been hearing all year from informed types and decision-makers, but also know it's in their best interests not to tell me exactly what they're thinking -- at least to be repeated for public consumption. Teams have a pretty good idea of who they like at this point, but can now really concentrate on the decision-making progress over the next five weeks and begin the process of trying to land who they covet.
Judging by the reaction of Clippers president Andy Roeser upon landing the top pick, it's safe to assume that at least one selection can start shopping for a place to live.
Here's how the 2009 NBA Draft may go:
1. L.A. Clippers - Blake Griffn, F, Oklahoma: Here's hoping he's more Danny Manning than Michael Olowokandi. Although coach/GM Mike Dunleavy was in Europe looking at Ricky Rubio when the lottery took place, it's pretty clear that the Clippers don't mind adding Griffin to their glut of forwards, dreaming of an Al Thornton/Griffin pairing for years to come.
2. Memphis - Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut: In going this route, the Grizzlies would simultaneously be expressing their confidence in Mike Conley as their point guard of the future, passing up on Rubio. Thabeet would be an asset because he can run the floor, rebound and mask many defensive mistakes with his defense and 7-3 frame.
3. Oklahoma City - Jordan Hill, F, Arizona: The Thunder has a few solid young wings and drafted Russell Westbrook last year to run the point, so Hill would be the best fit. That said, Rubio is a pretty intriguing prospect that doesn't come along all that often, so it wouldn't be shocking if he's the choice, stockpiling the arsenal.
4. Sacramento - Ricky Rubio, G, DKV Joventut (Spain): The Kings would be thrilled if Rubio fell into their lap. Even though Beno Udrih was inked prior to this past season, Rubio would be the ideal choice to groom alongside Kevin Martin deep deep into next decade.
5. Washington - Brandon Jennings, G, Roma (Italy): Since the Wiz dropped all the way down to here after setting their sights on the top spot, may as well get a little Gilbert Arenas insurance. Although Arenas is signed to a long-term deal, Flip Saunders has to be careful to keep him fresh and could use a talented young understudy who can score and get into the paint.
6. Minnesota - James Harden, G, Arizona State: The Wolves need another scorer who can get his own shot to help take some pressure off Al Jefferson, and the reigning Pac-10 Player of the year has a chance to
chance to fill that role immediately.
7. Golden State - Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis: Although Monta Ellis did enough to prove he can handle the point once he got healthy, picking up someone who can take a little pressure off him would be a good way to go, particularly since the Warriors have enough frontcourt projects in Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright.
8. New York - James Johnson, F, Wake Forest: Yes, I've heard the Stephen Curry promise rumors. They fit right in with getting LeBron James to the Knicks in 2010, but the best move would be getting a little David Lee insurance through Johnson, a versatile four who can block shots, run the floor and handles and shoots well for his position -- a strong fit for Mike D'Antoni's model.
9. Toronto - DeMar DeRozan, G/F, Southern Cal: The Raptors are in need of athleticism and a wow factor on the wing, and this is their best option. His defense will be ahead of his offense early, but there's a chance he winds up becoming a very nice player given the upside his physical gifts afford him.
10. Milwaukee - Ty Lawson, G, North Carolina: The Bucks are looking for winners to help end their postseason drought next season, so they could do worse than a national championship point guard. He's got great speed, a pro-ready body and a high IQ, giving him an opportunity to contribute immediately.
11. New Jersey - Stephen Curry, G, Davidson: The LeBron connection will play here, too. Given Devin Harris' ability to defend shooting guards, Curry might be a nice fit as a future counterpart, balancing out the All-Star's speed and creativity with his shooting stroke.
12. Charlotte - Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA: Those Raymond Felton rumors have never really gone away, but Larry Brown needs a partner for last year's lottery pick, D.J. Augustin, in order to make a move. Holiday oozes upside and has the perfect bigger frame to complement Augustin and give Brown a better defensive option.
13. Indiana - DeJuan Blair, F, Pittsburgh: Would provide a different option for the Pacers, who will also look to further Roy Hibbert's development next season. A high character kid who would be viewed as a piece to the puzzle.
14. Phoenix - Earl Clark, F, Louisville: He'd give you the most bang for your buck at this point in the draft, capable of playing multiple positions and bringing a versatile skill set to a team that needs an infusion of youth. In turn, Clark could use a few strong veteran influences to point him in the right direction as a rookie.
15. Detroit - Terrence Williams, G/F, Louisville: Seems to have turned the corner from a maturity standpoint and should be a strong pro who does whatever it takes to win. Detroit could go bigger here and keep B.J. Mullens in Big Ten country to fill its likely hole in the middle.
16. Chicago - Gerald Henderson, G, Duke: He seems like the kind of player who is going to become a rotation guy for a playoff team for many years, always striving to do the right thing out on the floor. Having traded Thabo Sefolosha and unsure of Ben Gordon's future, Henderson could fit a need.
17. Philadelphia - Chase Budinger, G/F, Arizona: The Sixers can go in a number of directions, be it 7-footer B.J. Mullens, point guards Eric Maynor and Jonny Flynn or any of a number of wings. Considering how glaring their need for perimeter help was this postseason, it's hard to imagine passing on probably the best shooter in the draft if he's available.
18. Minnesota - B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State: The athletic 7-footer still has a shot at landing in the lottery, but if he's here for the Wolves, would be a nice get to help Jefferson and Kevin Love.
19. Atlanta - Eric Maynor, G, VCU: Four-year standout has a great mid-range game and is fearless getting into the paint, but the Hawks could also go with Syracuse's Flynn here. Picking either choice would be proof Acie Law hasn't done enough to leave the point guard situation settled, especially given Mike Bibby's pending free agency.
20. Utah - Tyler Hansbrough, F, North Carolina: The Jazz have a lot of questions to answer during this free agency period, so expect them to go with the player who best fits the philosophy of the organization and be able to help immediately. Yeah, Hansbrough playing for Jerry Sloan before he hangs it up seems fitting.
21. New Orleans - Marcus Thornton, G, LSU: Not only does he fit a need for the hometown Hornets, he's the kind of kid who you don't have to worry about being too close to home. Can turn himself into a capable defender, but the lure early will be his offensive skills, particularly his range.
22. Dallas - Jonny Flynn, G, Syracuse: J.J. Barea has proven how necessary a change-of-pace penetrator is to the Mavs, so why not stock up on the position with a potential steal. Flynn has work to do on his jumper, but is lightning-quick and knows the sparkplug role well.
23. Sacramento - Paulao Prestes, C, Unicaja Malaga: Young Brazilian is playing great basketball in Spain and looms as someone who could move up in this draft. Always in search of quality size, the Kings could be interested.
24. Portland - Omri Casspi, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel): Hard-nosed athlete who looks like a prototypcial small forward. Nicolas Batum may be the long-term answer for the Blazers, but that doesn't mean they won't go after more talent they can potentially stash.
25. Oklahoma City - Patrick Mills, G, St. Mary's: The Australian international could be a major asset for the Thunder once they're playoff-worthy. Among the pieces missing in OKC is a change-of-pace guard off the bench to combat offensive lulls.
26. Chicago - Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga: Versatile 6-foot-10 forward is still mostly all upside, but has the potential to aid Derrick Rose by spreading the floor and drawing opposing bigs out to the perimeter.
27. Memphis - Jeff Teague, G, Wake Forest: Because they have to keep Conley motivated, might as well bring in fellow Indianapolis native Teague, a scoring guard who will need to work on his ability to run a team and make sound decisions in order to reach his vast potential.
28. Minnesota - Darren Collison, G, UCLA: Love's ex-teammate has proven he's a capable floor general and will make a living in this league as a standout defender. If he ever becomes more than a marginal offensive player, he'll wind up being a great value pick.
29. L.A. Lakers - Sam Young, F, Pittsburgh: He's the best player left on the board, polished and hard-working, which would serve the Lakers well in case Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza don't find their way back this summer.
30. Cleveland - Gani Lawal, F, Georgia Tech: Maybe Danny Ferry can find a way to work with this kid on his free throws, so long as he lives up to his potential as a rebounder/defender in the long run. If Anderson Varejao ever leaves for bigger dollars, Lawal could emerge as a potential successor.
Tony Mejia is senior writer for ProBasketballNews.com. He can be reached at mejia@probasketballnews.com.