There has been a lot of talk lately about the possibility of Shaquille O'Neal being traded by the Phoenix Suns. On Thursday, the Arizona Republic indicated it has to happen for the well-being of the Suns.
There have been rumors about Shaq going to Cleveland to team with LeBron James. There have been rumors about Shaq landing in Dallas to play with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd.
And with a contract that expires next summer, O'Neal -- despite his $20 million salary -- is easier to trade than you may think.
There are a few things to keep in mind here, however.
1. O'Neal will only go to a contender. Yes, he can be traded anywhere and has to report. But that doesn't mean he has to come to training camp in shape. And it doesn't mean he has to play through nagging injuries from being out of shape. And when he does take the court, it doesn't mean that he has to play hard and within the system. So any team not within striking distance of the title is out of the picture.
2. O'Neal says he wants another championship, but he may also be looking for another contract. It was less than 30 minutes after he had won a title in Los Angeles than he joined Lakers owner Jerry Buss in the media room and began chanting, "Extension! Extension!" While in Miami, he agreed to rework his deal downward from three years and roughly $89 million to five years and $100 million.
3. O'Neal remains an All-Star and an All-NBA Third Team pick at center because of the dearth of talent at the position, not his desire to maintain his skills. He no longer "distorts the game," as Jeff Van Gundy once described him. Depending on your center, you can get away with single coverage on him for extended stretches, which used to be coaching suicide. And as the NBA's big men become more mobile, O'Neal's reluctance and inability to leave the paint makes him somewhat of a defensive liability.
Right now, finding a fit for O'Neal that will satisfy him, his new team and the Suns is like getting a 330-pound thread through the eye of a needle. But we're going to try.
First, let's look at some of the rumors and discuss their relative merits:
O'Neal to the Cavaliers for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic: This would be a salary dump for the Suns; it is only a question of when and how much.
After the Cavs lost in the conference finals, Wallace said he was thinking about retirement. It's hard to imagine anyone leaving $14 million on the table, especially Wallace, whose career has been built on hard work and not giving up.
As recently as last season, you could imagine Wallace in the middle for the Suns, defending the rim, covering Steve Nash's sorry defensive behind in the pick-and-roll, hoarding rebounds, throwing outlet passes and running the floor as a trailer. But he looked old, slow and small in these playoffs and may be done as a rotation contributor.
If Wallace plays another season, the Suns would get his sizable cap slot next summer. If they work a buyout after the deal, they would still get the slot and save some money. Pavlovic makes $4.9 million, has a $1.5 million buyout and also becomes a free agent next summer. He likes to attack from the 3-point line, which would make him a good fit behind Jason Richardson.
O'Neal would give the Cavaliers the size in the middle that they lacked in dealing with Dwight Howard in the conference finals. But that's about all he would give them. As we said, he doesn't defend the pick-and-roll, which the Magic milk until it's dry. And wasn't O'Neal the guy who flopped while defending Howard?
After the initial giddiness of the idea of O'Neal and LeBron James as teammates wears off, it wouldn't take long for a casual observer to notice that O'Neal's presence on the low block -- and the attention he commands -- would decrease scoring opportunities for James, who is best when attacking the basket with his teammates -- including 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas -- on the perimeter.
But the real reason that the Cavaliers shouldn't pursue O'Neal is simply because he doesn't solve their problems against the Magic. The lingering memory Cavs fans will have this summer is of Howard abusing them for 40 and 14 in the clincher. A bigger issue was Cleveland's inability to match up with Orlando forwards Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter. It got so bad that coach Mike Brown even tried Wally Szczerbiak as a potential defensive upgrade.
If the Cavs believe that the Magic are standing in their way, the players they should be looking at are Andrei Kirilenko or Rasheed Wallace, mobile bigs who can defend multiple positions. O'Neal creates more problems for the Cavs than he solves.
O'Neal to the Mavericks for Erick Dampier and Jerry Stackhouse: Overall, this is a better deal for all involved but still not a good one. The Suns would still get a huge cap slot next summer, as Dampier's 2010-11 salary of $13 million is dependent upon highly unlikely incentives and Stackhouse can be bought out of his next season's $7.25 million salary for $2 million.
However, the lumbering Dampier isn't a good fit for the run-and-gun Suns on either end of the floor, which would have either Amare Stoudemire sulking or Robin Lopez unprepared in the middle.
O'Neal would be a better fit in Dallas than in Cleveland because he would be replacing Dampier, who averaged just 23 minutes per game last season as the Mavs used the more agile, leaner Ryan Hollins or went to a small lineup with Dampier on the bench. They could do the same with O'Neal, or have him outlet to Jason Kidd to look for early offense. And when O'Neal is on the block, he wouldn't get in the way of Nowitzki, who likes the high post in pick-and-rolls with Kidd or Jason Terry.
Say what you will about Mavs owner Mark Cuban moving Devin Harris for Kidd; he didn't give Kidd the extension he wanted from the Nets, which prompted the trade in the first place. Cuban won't cave on O'Neal, either -- not with his team positioned to be a player next summer.
But for the Mavericks to make a title push with O'Neal, he will have to play at least 35 minutes per game in the postseason, facing the likes of younger bigs Nene, Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum and Yao Ming as well as the still excellent Tim Duncan. He hasn't had to play into June since 2006, when signs that he may be a mere mortal first arose. It's hard to imagine him turning back time.
Here are a few deals for O'Neal that are a bit less surreal:
O'Neal to the Wizards for Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas and Mike James: All three Wizards come off the books next summer, so the Suns remain a player in the 2010 free agent market. They may not be good fits, but Phoenix was considering a similar salary dump with Cleveland.
The Wizards get one shot with O'Neal alongside Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and a (hopefully) healthy Gilbert Arenas with Flip Saunders on the bench. There may not be enough basketballs, but if it doesn't work, it doesn't change whatever GM Ernie Grunfeld's long-term plans were.
O'Neal to the Hawks for Josh Smith, Acie Law and Speedy Claxton: This would muddle Phoenix's 2010 plans, but at least they would be getting a young stud in return. Law and Claxton are included for salary purposes and are free agents next summer. Perhaps the Suns could send back a first-round pick as a goodwill gesture from the Joe Johnson deal.
The Hawks could re-sign Mike Bibby, swap O'Neal and Zaza Pachulia in the middle and slide Al Horford to power forward. Their underrated bench would still include Pachulia, Maurice Evans and a re-signed Flip Murray. And with all the point guards in the draft, Atlanta could find one at No. 19.
O'Neal to the Bulls for Brad Miller and Jerome James: With his solid range and passing ability, Miller would be an excellent fit for the Suns and allow Stoudemire to play power forward. James could be waived or kept on the end of the bench. Both bigs have contracts that expire next summer.
Much like the Wizards and Hawks, the Bulls get one shot at making the jump to contender. They could go big with O'Neal in the middle (imagine Tyrus Thomas or Joakim Noah playing in the space he creates) and create more space for their shooters, although the slashing of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng would be negatively impacted. But taking on O'Neal for one season wouldn't change Chicago's plans.
O'Neal to the Rockets for Tracy McGrady: Believe it or not, McGrady makes more money than O'Neal; he is scheduled to receive $21.1 million next season, then comes off the books, so neither team's plans are affected.
The Suns can look at it two ways: It can be a salary dump, which they have already indicated they are open to with some of the other rumored deals. Or they can take an abbreviated look at McGrady, who will be ready in December or January and eager to prove he is healed and worthy of another contract. In Phoenix's offense, he can play anywhere from the 1 to the 4.
The Rockets were one win away from the conference finals without McGrady. He clearly isn't in their plans and is rumored to be on the market. Moving him would be a huge step forward for the franchise.
While limiting O'Neal's minutes, the Rockets would have insurance for the oft-injured Yao Ming. You get a nice mental picture of guys like Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Aaron Brooks playing in the space that O'Neal creates, which would be very similar to playing alongside Yao. And with a roster that includes O'Neal, Scola, Landry, Hayes, Ron Artest and Shane Battier, the Rockets would be perhaps the toughest team in the NBA.
If O'Neal is serious about winning a championship -- and getting another contract, perhaps at mid-level money -- this is the place to be.
Chris Bernucca has covered the NBA since 1996 and is a regular contributor to Pro Basketball News. You can disagree with him at cbernucca@comcast.net.