The NBA's annual free agency festivities are now officially underway, which always brings to mind the wish that I hadn't been so right-brained as to detest crunching numbers.

This year, that regret doesn't pack quite as much sting.

Both agents and free agents face far less glamorous prospects than they normally would this time of year, as the down economy and an opening of the flood gates come 2010 combining for a  climate that makes it easier for teams to avoid irresponsible decisions of the Todd MacCulloch/Jim McIlvaine variety.

Kobe Bryant, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur all passed on opting out of their current deals, which at the very least has to be considered good news for the bigger names that are in play.

Bryant's decision came down to whether he wanted to re-negotiate an extension with the Lakers now or in 12 months, but developments in Salt Lake City did come as a suprise and are indicative of the general temperature of this year's market.

Boozer, known as the (insert expletive) opt-out king of betrayal throughout Cleveland and most of greater Ohio, had talked all season about likely testing the waters and securing a long-term deal, be it in Utah or elsewhere. Okur was also expected to opt out, capitalizing on a season where he shot a career-best 45 percent from 3-point range, replacing Rasheed Wallace as the league's deadliest shooting center.

Both decided to remain in Utah instead, opting to try their luck next summer in the hopes that teams unable to compete in the higher-profile LeBron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh sweepstakes will over-spend to keep from coming up empty. Boozer will collect $12.7 million next season, a rate he would've found challenging to replicate on this season's market. Okur will make $9 million, preferring to remain with the nucleus he's come to prominence with for one last run at the Lakers and Spurs.

Their decisions trim the number of potential elite level free agents significantly, leaving behind a final pool lacking any candidates capable of joining the current crop of maximum contract players. Mark Cuban astutely posted on his Twitter that it might be worth it for guys to take one-year deals and try again next time around. In essence, that's what Boozer and Okur have done.

In completing our preview of free agency, the following high-level prospects are broken down into two categories: ones who will likely command a team's full mid-level (starting between $5-6 million per year) and those capable of rightfully demanding more than that.

The big boys

10. Allen Iverson - Staying cost-conscious, Iverson has a chance to sell you a few extra tickets. It's hard to know where his mind is after his stint with Detroit turned into a fiasco. Given the back issues and the perception that he needs to start and play a major role in order to be content, it's hard to see where he fits. At the same time, it's hard to see him coming back for the simple mid-level, and even harder still to imagine him taking an early retirement. He's 34, a lock Hall of Famer who has to weigh the risk of tarnishing his legacy from here on out, but going out the way he did in Detroit is understandably probably not an option. As a result, Iverson suitors might be willing to sit down for a little poker to see just how committed he is to coming back. This feels like a situation that will be drawn out, unlikely to result in anything other than a one-year deal with an option for a second, allowing Iverson to see just how much he has left.

9. Paul Millsap - Despite being an undersized second-round pick, Millsap has beaten all the odds and gotten to the door step of cashing in. The Jazz know they're going to have to pay to keep him, but can't break the bank to do it, leaving them vulnerable to a suitor willing to offer more than the mid-level. Decision-makers have to weigh the perceived trap of giving a small power forward a massive contract against the belieft that he's capable of excelling for the long haul. Filling in for Boozer, he enjoyed a stretch from November to January where he notched double-doubles in 22 of 24 games, but has had knee issues that scare some who believe he could wear down. He's also foul-prone, which is a scary proposition considering he'd be given a major pay raise to come in and be a starter. Utah would love to keep him, but this is Millsap's best chance to cash in on his efforts to date. Portland, in need of added toughness up front, could be an interesting suitor, sticking it to their Northwest Division foe.

8. Shawn Marion - He's coming off a maximum deal that he landed in Phoenix in his prime, so it's clear he's not going to be making what he's used to. At the same time, he's just 31 years old, and although he didn't put up massive numbers in Miami or Toronto, he did somewhat dispel the system player tag by performing well in both stops, helping his new teams achieve results. The Raptors have some leverage due to Hedo Turkoglu being out there on the market, but it may turn out that Marion is their best bet to field a more competitive team, since signing the Turkish star would really strap them financially, compromising their ability to acquire any depth.

7. Lamar Odom - Staying in L.A. is important to him, so with that in mind, it seems reasonable that both sides will work together to make it happen. Lakers management knows it will have to go deep into the luxury tax to keep the champs together, but may be willing to do so if it means keeping an emerging dynasty intact. Odom, meanwhile, has to be willing to take a slight pay cut to lessen the burden on the Lakers' hit as they strive to keep him and Trevor Ariza, a reality that might be made easier to accept given the market and his desire to be at Staples when that 15th banner goes up.

6. Jason Kidd - You've got to be a pretty bad man when you're 36 years old and still have them lining up at your door at 12:01 a.m. Kidd, no stranger to being courted, was in New York to hear the Knicks' pitch, but had Mark Cuban in his ear at the earliest possible moment with what's expected to be a multi-year deal at a very generous rate given what this market commands. Kidd enjoyed playing for the Mavericks last season and is comfortable with the pace and system, improving his 3-point shooting stroke to make himself a more viable offensive threat. Expect to see him back in Dallas, but probably not before doing a little flirting.

5. Andre Miller - Miller is in a stronger position than most 33-year-old point guards would be entering what will likely be the last major deal of his career. He's likely to stay at around the $10 million he had been earning, although a three-year deal will probably earn the team that signs him a discount rate. Given Philadelphia's desire to keep his calming presence on the team's younger stars, it's going to take a significant offer to see him leave town. Portland, which has assets the Sixers would covet via a sign-and-trade, could be one option.

4. Ben Gordon - It's hard to believe that passing on deals in excess of $50 million over the past two offseasons won't come back to bite Gordon, as he'll finally get the security he seeks despite the current market. Shooting the way he did down the stretch for Chicago has the Bulls hoping to keep him and Central Division rival Detroit trying to pry him loose. The Pistons would love his offense as the type of spark Allen Iverson failed to be, and wasted no time declaring their pursuit of his services. He'll get the security he craved and won't get less than what he's previously turned down.

3. Hedo Turkoglu - Orlando's decision to bring in Vince Carter spelled the end for Turk's stint with the team, but both will have fond memories of one another. For the Magic, he'll always be remembered as the glue of the first team to win an NBA Finals game, while the team will always have a spot in his heart for serving as the vehicle for him to truly show what he can do. As a result, he'll be getting P-A-I-D. Hoping to rack up a multi-year deal averaging at least $10 million per season, Turkoglu has to be toasting the prospects of a bidding war between the Raptors and Blazers, who both covet his ability to wreak havoc on the pick-and-roll.

2. Ron Artest - With Yao Ming likely done for 2009-10, it will be interesting to see just how willing to keep Artest the Rockets will be. He wants to be back, but unless they plan on committing to him long-term as part of the vision, they may find there's little reason to pay him to bridge the gap between now and the point they return to contention. If Daryl Morey sees him as a piece to the puzzle, they'll give him a little peace of mind with a multi-year deal to reward last season's incident-free success. Artest could also go another route altogether, taking less money in order to compete for a championship. At any rate, his combination of tenacity and defense while presenting unique mismatches on the wing make him one of the most intriguing piece out there, a game-changer in a league where there's no one else like him.

1. David Lee - The biggest winner in Boozer's decision to stay with Utah is Lee, who instantly becomes the surest thing available up front. Just 26, jis career path is on the rise, having just missed out on an All-Star appearance last February. He fills a need for two of the franchises with the most money, Memphis and Oklahoma City. Given New York's desire not to mess with their plot for world domination come 2010, matching a massive offer for Lee won't be happening, so it's highly likely that he'll be racking up double-doubles elsewhere soon. Lee is durable, having played 162 of 164 possible games the last two seasons, and if he continues improving his shooting range and accuracy, he's got an opportunity to continue at an 18-point, 12-rebound rate over the next few seasons before his athleticism starts to wane.

The 'tweener

Marvin Williams - Williams will require more than the full mid-level to change addresses, as the Hawks' qualifying offer guarantees him a raise to $7.35 million. If a team wants to torment Atlanta with an offer sheet for the No. 2 pick in 2005, they'll have to come with all the stops, offering a significant enough raise for the Hawks not to match. Considering the 23-year-old is just starting to turn the corner, that's unlikely.

Mid-level men

10. Chris Andersen - Birdman is in line for a pay raise, but given his stated desire to stay in Denver, there really isn't much of a reason for the Nuggets to give him the full mid-level. They have a lot of work to do to fill out the roster and might get a discount from their fan favorite to help keep a Dahntay Jones around.

9. Zaza Pachulia - He wants to go somewhere he can start, and at 6-11 and 275 pounds, Pachulia has the tools to take on a larger role. His success this past postseason should put more money in his pocket as he's the rugged type of center whose toughness is an asset when it counts. Having earned $16 million over his last four years, the 25-year-old Georgian is likely to end up with a raise.

8. Rasheed Wallace - Although he's on the down side of his career, he's far better than the disinterested version he put forth in his final days in Detroit. Understanding how motivated 'Sheed becomes when the prospect of lugging around  a championship belt comes around, only title contenders need apply. The Spurs, Magic and Celtics are being tied to him early.

7. Mike Bibby - Though still solid, Bibby is on the other side of 30 and doesn't have the same pull Kidd and Miller do. He's a competent floor leader and has improved his shooting, but isn't considered a strong enough defender to earn anything more than the mid-level, as teams project he'll be better suited for a lesser role over the length of his next deal. 

6. Anderson Varejao - He takes a lot of heat for his flopping and lack of an offensive game, but there are a lot of things he does out on the floor that really make the game easier for teammates. In passing on a $6.2 million option to stay with the Cavs, he's looking for the security of a long-term deal earning at least the mid-level to run the floor, crash the boards and set his screens. He'll throw in the flops for free.

5. Marcin Gortat - After earning just over $700,000 last season, Dwight Howard's former backup is going to get his loot, and a major opportunity, should he sign with Houston. Morey sent out a Facebook memo urging Rockets fans to try and steer the Polish center to H-town via e-mail at rocketfanslovegortat@gmail.com. He knows there will be competition, as Gortat endeared himself to many with his athleticism and sturdy defense in relief of Howard these past playoffs, emerging as a potential legitimate anchor in the post. There are a lot of teams in the mix, which could drive his price up.

4. Raymond Felton - The Bobcats pledge to match anything reasonable to keep the 25-year-old, putting down a $5.5 million qualifying offer to make him restricted. Although his numbers haven't improved much over his first four seasons (he's a career 40 percent shooter and has shot 28 percent from 3-point range each of the last two), these next few years figure to be his best, and Charlotte doesn't want to miss out on at least cashing in via trade down the road on the time its invested on him.

3. Nate Robinson - The reigning Slam Dunk champion can sell tickets, too, but he might be better off signing for one more year on Broadway to further ride the momentum of what Mike D'Antoni has done for his career. There are concerns about his adversarial attitude and shot selection, but he's got undeniable talent and appeal, enough to coax the full mid-level out of somebody.

2. Charlie Villanueva - There are times he wows you and others where he leaves you shaking your head, but it was still a mild surprise to see the Bucks fail to tender a qualifying offer to at least make him restricted. He averaged 16.2 points and shot a career-best 35 percent from 3-point range in his fourth season, showing off an expanding offensive game. Defensively, he's got lots of work to do, but since he'll be just 25 entering the season, expect at least a couple teams to drive up his price somewhere near what Darko Milicic got from Memphis (three years, $21 million).  

1. Trevor Ariza - Lucky to have blossomed right before he came up for a new deal, he celebrated his 24th birthday on Tuesday looking forward to a significant increase on the $3.1 million he earned a year ago. During the Lakers victorious run through the playoffs, Ariza wound up shooting 50 percent from 3-point range and made immense contributions on defense.  Given his rapid development, potential to be an impact player at both ends and his newly acquired championship pedigree, teams would be wise to put in a bid and at least drive up the price on L.A. as it tries to hold on to both him and Odom.  

Tony Mejia is senior writer for Pro Basketball News. He can be reached at mejia@probasketballnews.com.

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